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Brent Below $100/Bbl, Could Fall Another $25, Say Analysts

Brent Below $100/Bbl, Could Fall Another $25, Say Analysts
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Παρ, 1 Ιουνίου 2012 - 18:27
Brent crude oil prices Friday dropped below the key $100 a barrel level and could fall by up to another $25 a barrel in the next few weeks if the sour sentiment in broader markets continues, analyst and brokers said.
Brent crude oil prices Friday dropped below the key $100 a barrel level and could fall by up to another $25 a barrel in the next few weeks if the sour sentiment in broader markets continues, analyst and brokers said.

Brent crude oil prices Friday fell 4% to an intraday low of $97.70 a barrel, the lowest level since the beginning of February 2011. Since the beginning of May prices have come off by 18% and they are down 23% from this year's early-March peak of $128.40 a barrel amid fears that depressed economies in Europe and slowing growth in China and the U.S. would cut into the world's oil demand.

Oil price dynamics are key drivers of inflation and the cost of living around the world, as prices of almost all goods and services include the cost of fuel.

"We are in for a bit of a rough ride here," said Ole Hansen, manager of the futures and fixed income trading desk at Saxo Bank. From a technical standpoint, the developments look "absolutely horrible and could signal a $20- to $25-a-barrel drop," he said.

The slide in crude prices comes as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries--the world's largest oil-producer group--is set to meet June 14.

OPEC, which tends to use Brent as a marker, has indicated that it saw Brent price at about $100 a barrel as ideal and has been producing crude oil in volumes exceeding demand.

Two OPEC delegates told Dow Jones Newswires Friday they saw no immediate need to cut production despite the oil price drop.

Olivier Jakob, managing director of Swiss consultancy Petromatrix, said Brent could fall by as much as $10 a barrel by the end of next week, particularly if the euro's weakness to the dollar keeps up.

The euro was at $1.2310 as of 1232 GMT, after hitting a low of $1.2294, from $1.2367 late New York trading Thursday.

Oil futures can stabilize around the Friday level, but for that the dollar also needs to stop making new highs, said Hansen.

When the dollar strengthens, dollar-denominated oil futures become more expensive for holders of other currencies, pushing crude prices lower.

Brent crude oil prices are dependent on the outcome of the euro-zone debt crisis, said a London-based broker.

"If they [the EU] don't get anything organized, I imagine oil will decline much lower," he said.

The oil futures market is already oversold, but speculators actively withdrawing bets on higher oil prices are adding momentum to the fall, Hansen said.

But Amrita Sen, an oil analyst at Barclays, said it's unclear whether or not futures are now trading below their fair value and will bounce back soon.

If weak macroeconomic data from around the world proves to be a short-lived phenomenon, oil futures will go higher, but if the data continue to be poor, it could signal that the global economy is heading towards recession, pushing oil prices lower, Sen said.
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