The
global solar photovoltaic electricity (PV) market counted an additional increase
in installed capacity of about 6.4 GW in 2009, reaching a total capacity of over
20 GW world-wide. This has been the most important annual capacity increase ever
and is particularly impressive in light of the difficult financial and
economical circumstances during the past year. In 2010, global cumulative
installed PV capacity is expected to grow by at least 40%, while the annual
growth is expected to increase by more than 15%. During 2009, Germany remained
the largest market, with Italy ranking second and Japan and the U.S. markets to
follow. Germany most probably will remain the largest market in 2010, while new
markets in particular from Southern Europe, Asia and the U.S. will grow
significantly.
Gathered
together in Rome on the occasion of the 5th Workshop on Market Potential and
Production Capacity on 19 March 2010, the Members of the European Photovoltaic
Industry Association (EPIA) have discussed PV results for 2009 and forecasts
until 2014.
Europe maintains
market leadership
With a
cumulative installed capacity of almost 9 GW, including around 3 GW installed in
2009, Germany remains the world’s largest PV market although the recently
announced Feed-in Tariff cuts are expected to significantly affect the
development of the national industry in the longer run. In the mid-term, Italy
appears as one of the most promising markets with an additional capacity of some
700 MW already in 2009. Besides high sun irradiation, the new Conto Energia,
which should be announced in Spring, would continue to support the strong
momentum of the Italian market. Czech Republic shows an important growth in 2009
with 411 MW installed but, due to overly generous support schemes, the market is
expected to shrink importantly in 2011 after another year of strong growth in
2010. “
This underlines the
imperative need for support mechanisms to be designed in a way to ensure a long
term, predictable and sustainable development of the market and avoid
instability and discontinuity in market evolution” explains Adel El
Gammal, Secretary General of EPIA. Thanks to a strong political will, Belgium
made its entry into the TOP 10 markets with 292 MW installed in 2009. Due to a
revision of the financial support scheme early 2010, the market is, however,
expected to slow down slightly in 2010. France follows with 185 MW installed in
2009, with an additional 100 MW installed but not connected to the grid yet. In
spite of a huge potential, this clearly demonstrates the importance for France
to solve grid connection issues in order to allow the market to develop. In
Spain, the set-up of a market cap in 2008, combined with the effects of the
financial crisis, constrained the market to only about 60 MW installed in
2009.However, PV accounted for about 3% of the electricity production in the
country in 2009 and clearly appears as a privileged source of electricity in the
fight against Climate Change. Finally, Greece, Portugal and the U.K. are showing
interesting potential for growth in 2010 and beyond.
Japan and USA as
leading markets outside Europe
Outside
Europe, Japan positions itself as the third largest market with 484 MW and shows
an important growth potential thanks to favourable political support. The U.S.
market finally took off significantly with around 475 MW installed in 2009 and
appears as a potential leading market for the coming years. China and India are
also expected to boom in the next five years with an impressive amount of PV
projects in the pipeline. Canada and Australia showed significant market
development in 2009 and are expected to open the way to the development of new
markets. Brazil, Mexico, Morocco and South Africa are also seen as promising
countries.
A
bright future for PV
The global
PV market could reach between 8.2 and 12.7 GW of new installations assuming a
moderate scenario and a policy driven scenario, respectively, and would
represent a growth of 40% and 60 % of the overall cumulative installed capacity
compared to 2009 for the two scenarios.
In a policy-driven scenario, the
global annual PV market could reach up to 30 GW in 2014 based of course on
favourable conditions established by policy makers, regulators and the energy
sector at large. The announced world-wide PV production capacity would also be
sufficient to cover the expected evolution of the market in the coming five
years.
“
In addition to the ramp-up of many
markets in Europe, the development and opening of new markets in Asia, the
Americas and Africa is paving the way to a strong and sustainable momentum of PV
powered supply solutions all around the world” concludes Ingmar
Wilhelm, President of EPIA.