Crude oil output from sanctions-stricken Iran is expected to be down 1 million barrels a day by year-end from the 2011 end-year level of 3.6 million barrels a day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.
Crude oil output from sanctions-stricken
Iran
is
expected to be down 1 million barrels a day by year-end from the 2011 end-year
level of 3.6 million barrels a day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration
said Wednesday.
In its short-term energy outlook, the EIA said
Iran
's oil
output dropped by 50,000 barrels a day in September, after a
100,000-barrels-a-day decline in August.
The EIA estimates the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep
output around 31 million barrels a day in 2013, steady with the expected 2012
level, which is up from 29.83 million barrels a day in 2011. Saudi Arabia, the
world's biggest oil exporter, is expected to keep output at or near 10 million
barrels a day, leaving global spare output capacity of around 2 million barrels
a day concentrated in the kingdom.
Company-held oil inventories in the major industrialized nations that comprise
the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are expected to hit a
21-year high by year end of 57 days of forward demand cover. That's up from 56
days in the fourth quarter last year.
The EIA said the high stock cover is a result of declining OECD oil demand.
For the fourth quarter, the EIA continues to project modest global oil demand
growth of about 0.9%, or 800,000 barrels a day, to 89.5 million barrels a day. OECD
demand is expected to slip by around 300,000 barrels a day year-on-year in the
quarter, while
China
's
demand rises by around 500,000 barrels a day, or about 45% of total non-OECD
demand growth.
In 2013, the EIA sees global oil demand up 1%, at 90 million barrels a day,
with
China
's
demand up 400,000 barrels a day, to 10.6 million barrels a day.
Non-OPEC oil output is expected to rise by 570,000 barrels a day this year and
by 1.2 million barrels a day next year, led by gains in
Canada
and
the U.S. Crude oil output in the
U.S.
is
expected to hit its highest level since 1993 next year on rising output from
shale oil fields.
The EIA's global oil demand estimates are based on world oil-consumption-weighted
real gross domestic product growth of 2.7% in 2012 and 2.5% in 2013.
The EIA continues to see North Sea Brent crude averaging near $111 a barrel in
the current quarter, and $103 a barrel next year.
Saudi
Arabia
has repeatedly said it wants
to see Brent prices near $100 a barrel and is keeping its output high to meet
demand and to moderate prices.
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