A series of draft reports released by NATO member politicians warns of the growing threat from climate change to peace and security in the Middle East and Africa, and urges all nations to stick to their Paris Agreement commitments.

Climate change risks exacerbating food and water shortages in the region triggering more conflict and mass migration that would have “serious security implications for the wider world”, according to one of the draft reports, which is set to be discussed at NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly in Tbilisi, Georgia, on 27 May.

Lawmakers from nations in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are warning that global warming will lead to mass migration and conflict in the Middle East and Africa, another reason President Donald Trump should stay in the Paris climate deal.

Climate change will lead to “dire” food and water shortages in the region, according to a draft report presented today to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.

Acting as the “ultimate threat multiplier” after decades of resource mismanagement in the region, extreme weather and rising seas would likely lead to volatile food prices and increased competition, according to the report by Osman Askin, a member of the Turkish Parliament.

His country is host to more than 3 million refugees and asylum seekers, according to the report, and the surge in migration in Europe in recent years was a key reason for the U.K. voting to leave the European Union. Migration was an important plank of Trump’s presidential campaign last year, and he pledged to build a wall along the 1,900-mile (3,050-kilometer) U.S.-Mexico border.

The report, to be discussed this week in the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, urges all 146 countries that have ratified the Paris Agreement to “live up to their pledges,” including providing climate finance for developing countries.

Trump, who will attend his first meeting with leaders of the Group of Seven Countries this week, has threatened to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Accord, end climate financing and is reviewing the Clean Power Plan — a key policy for cutting pollution introduced by his predecessor Barack Obama. He’s postponed a decision and it’s now expected by the end of May.

The report adds to pressure from Trump’s daughter Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner, along with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who have been urging the president to remain in the Paris deal. Several of Trump’s top advisers are pushing for an exit, including chief strategist Stephen Bannon and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt.

The 28-member North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which was formed in 1949 during the Cold War, has invoked the collective defense article only once – after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States that leveled the World Trade Center’s twin towers in New York, Trump’s hometown.


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