Wood Mackenzie recently upgraded its forecast for wind power growth by 2 percent in its Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q4 2018 compared to the estimates published in the third quarter. "Most upgrades occur in the medium-term, boosting annual capacity additions from 2020 to 2023 by an average of 2.7 gigawatts," the report stated.
- European offshore matures
According to the report, the maturation of the European offshore sector continues to be a strong driver of wind in the region. Luke Lewandowski, director of Americas power & renewables research, said in the report that 16 GW of offshore wind power capacity will be installed in Europe by the end of 2018 and more than 47 GW is expected to come online in the region from 2018 to 2027.
He also stated that the European offshore wind power experience has encouraged governments in other regions to support offshore wind to comply with carbon reduction strategies and renewable energy targets as well as more firmly secure domestic power supply.
- Americas wind markets
Lewandowski said that attractive price signals are expected to motivate an increase in state-level procurement activity from both pioneering states, such as Massachusetts and New York, as well as new entrants over the long-term, such as California and Delaware. "The upgrade will increase installed offshore capacity in the U.S. to approximately 10 GW by the end of 2027, representing 15 percent of all new capacity over the 10-year outlook," the report underlined.
In the Americas, election results in Brazil, Mexico, and Quebec, Canada, have or may impact the wind power outlook in these markets.
Demand in Australia’s onshore sector headlines adjustments in Asia Pacific, as auction awards and financing commitments have flourished ahead of the market’s renewable energy target deadline, the report said. Recent announcements result in a nearly 2 GW upgrade to the outlook quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and increase project capacity under construction to 5 GW, it added.
- Scandinavian countries
Countries in Scandinavia; Sweden, Norway, and Finland, represent the most significant changes to Wood Mackenzie’s onshore wind power outlook this quarter. With a more than 5GW upgrade QoQ, these three countries will account for 15 percent of new onshore capacity installed in Europe over the next 10 years.
- Global wind turbine order intake on the rise
Firm offshore turbine order intake in China through the first three quarters of the year comprised about 25 percent of order intake in the market, indicating the increasing importance of the offshore sector to the local industry.
Although the 10-year outlook for China’s offshore sector remains unchanged QoQ, the strong turbine order activity in 2018 confirms China’s rising position as the leading global market in the offshore sector, as it will account for nearly a third of new offshore capacity added globally from 2018 to 2027.
Global order intake capacity increased 28 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018 and is up nearly 40 percent through the first three quarters of the year.