Demand for energy will rise through 2040 as global economic output doubles and prosperity expands across a world where population will grow to nearly 9 billion people, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) states in its The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, issued today.
Demand for energy will rise through 2040 as global economic output
doubles and prosperity expands across a world where population will grow to
nearly 9 billion people, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) states in its The
Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, issued today. Extending its annual
long-term energy forecast to 2040 for the first time, ExxonMobil said this year's
Outlook reveals several trends that will influence how the world uses energy
over the coming decades.
The Outlook projects that global energy demand in 2040 will be about 30 percent
higher than it was in 2010, led by growth in developing regions such as China,
India, Africa and other emerging economies.
While oil will remain the most widely used fuel, overall energy demand will be
reshaped by a continued shift toward less-carbon-intensive energy sources --
such as natural gas -- as well as steep improvements in energy efficiency in
areas like transportation, where the expanded use of hybrid vehicles will help
push average new-car fuel economy to nearly 50 miles per gallon by 2040.
"The Outlook for Energy demonstrates that by applying innovation and
technology, the world does not need to choose between economic growth and
environmental stewardship," said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief
executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation. "As people in developed
countries look to regain their economic momentum, and as everyone seeks
improved living standards for themselves and their families, ExxonMobil will
continue to invest in the technologies that enable us to provide the reliable,
affordable energy central to economic growth and human progress."
As in previous editions of The Outlook for Energy, rising demand for
electricity is identified as the single largest influence on energy trends. ExxonMobil
projects that global electricity demand will rise by 80 percent through 2040 as
economies and living standards improve, and consumers switch to electricity
from other sources such as oil, coal or biomass. By 2040, four out of every 10
units of energy produced in the world will be going toward the production of
electricity.
The mix of fuels used to produce electricity will change dramatically, however,
as nations shift away from coal in favor of lower-carbon sources such as
natural gas, which emit up to 60 percent less CO(2) than coal when used for
electricity generation. By 2040, 30 percent of the world's electricity will be
produced using natural gas, while demand for coal will peak and experience its
first long-term decline in modern history.
The Outlook for Energy also reveals the impact of new technologies that are
expanding global energy supplies, such as advances in production techniques
that have unlocked a century's worth of natural gas across the
United
States
. ExxonMobil estimates that
natural gas from shale and similar sources will account for 30 percent of
global gas production by 2040.
Developed by a team of experts using a combination of public and proprietary
sources, The Outlook for Energy guides ExxonMobil's global investment
decisions. Many of its findings are similar to those from other respected
organizations, including the International Energy Agency. ExxonMobil publishes
The Outlook for Energy to encourage broader understanding of energy issues
among policy makers and the public.
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