Egypt Turmoil Fuels Asset Sales, Rise in Oil Prices

Egyptian assets sold off and oil prices rose Thursday after violence escalated in Cairo and political turmoil gripped the country.

At least 525 people have been killed in Egypt 's latest wave of violence, after a bloody crackdown Wednesday on Muslim Brotherhood supporters who had occupied protest camps in Cairo and called for the reinstatement of President Mohamed Morsi.

Egypt 's interim government announced a month-long, national state of emergency, and the country's stock exchange was closed Thursday. Egypt 's most heavily traded dollar bond weakened, while the cost to insure Egyptian debt against default rose. Analysts expect that Egypt 's stock market may free fall whenever it reopens.

"Once the market is going to open, it's going to crash," said Souheir Asba, frontier market strategist at Societe Generale in London .

Amid concerns about Egypt 's paralyzed economy, the spread on Egypt 's five-year credit default swaps rose to 803 basis points from 770 basis points the previous session, according to data provider Markit.

Egypt 's 2020 dollar bond slipped to trade at 85.6710 cents on the dollar Thursday, from 86.7259 the previous session, according to Markit. The bond currently yields around 8.61%.

However, the Egyptian pound was steady on the day against the dollar, though likely in thin trading. The dollar bought EGP6.9915, according to CQG.

One factor that may be muting traders' reaction to the turmoil is that many foreign investors have already fled Egypt this year, particularly when protests against Mr. Morsi heightened and expectations for an immediate lifeline from the International Monetary Fund waned, analysts said.

"Everyone's left now already," said Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics.

He said funds from Egypt 's neighboring countries have helped replace those missing private capital inflows, but warned that investors should still expect further disruptions in the local economy.

"The clear point is, the economy's still struggling," he said. "It's quite clear that ordinary Egyptians are the ones that are going to feel the squeeze because of this."

Egypt 's EGX 30 stock index fell 1.7% Wednesday to close at 5549.19. The index is still up 1.6% so far this year.

The rising death toll in Egypt also reverberated across the global oil market. Brent crude-oil futures shot to a four-month high Thursday, with traders increasingly worried about the prospect of supply disruptions, particularly at the Suez Canal , a critical conduit for Middle Eastern oil.

"You have a lot of the Saudi oil that actually goes through pipelines through Egypt ," Ms. Asba said. "Everything that goes through the Suez Canal can be impacted."

Oil futures notched a fifth straight session of gains after the Egyptian government confirmed that the death toll in Egypt rose to at least 525 after Wednesday's bloody crackdown.

Brent crude for September delivery rose 97 cents, or 0.9%, to $111.17 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Earlier, it rose as much as $1.33 to $111.53, the highest price since April 2.