Saudi Output Unlikely To Reach 10M B/D In Summer-Sources

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is unlikely to lift crude oil output to 10 million barrels a day this summer after a lukewarm response from refiners, two Gulf OPEC officials familiar with the matter said Tuesday.

Saudi oil officials have previously said output would increase to meet rising demand if required after OPEC talks broke down last month, regardless of the International Energy Agency's surprise release of emergency stocks.

"If Saudi pumps more oil this summer it will be mainly to meet the rise in domestic demand. I think output could increase by around 150,000 barrels a day this month," a Gulf OPEC official told Dow Jones Newswires. "The kingdom is still committed to meeting any rise in demand in the market...but not many buyers are asking for extra Saudi crude."

Another Gulf official said initial indications pointed to an increase of no more than 300,000 barrels a day for the whole of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in July. With Kuwait and Iraq expected to slightly hike output, that wouldn't leave much room for a Saudi rise.

In June Saudi Arabia produced an extra 467,000 barrels a day to lift its crude oil production to almost 9.5 million barrels a day, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. OPEC said in its monthly report Tuesday that domestic oil consumption in Saudi Arabia is rising rapidly, up 7.8% on the year in May. Supplies from the country last month rose 461,000 barrels a day to 9.42 million barrels a day, OPEC said.

Shipping reports suggest much of this is consumed domestically. A person familiar with the matter said Monday that Saudi Arabia has offered extra crude to its customers for August but refiners, particularly from Asia , have largely declined.

Analysts blame the lackluster demand on the kingdom's refusal to slash prices. Despite some cuts in light crude prices last week, the Saudis "are not making crude cheaper at the moment," said David Wech, an analyst at Vienna-based consultancy JBC.

Ehsan Ul-Haq, senior staff consultant at the U.K's KBC Process Technology said: "I don't think the Saudis are ready to supply as much oil as possible," considering the price they charge.

Producers, however, have also warned of lingering concerns over how much oil markets would need going forward. In its monthly report OPEC said oil demand growth would probably slow slightly next year. However, widespread economic uncertainty, particularly the "wild card" of U.S. oil demand, makes the market difficult to predict, it said.