Astana’s new initiative to realise such a great infrastructural project as the New Silk Road taking into consideration the economical and geopolitical conditions may become an excellent impulse for development of oil and gas infrastructure in Asian region, said Matthew J Sagers, a leading expert on power industry of the Caspian region.
The new initiative of Kazakhstan’s leader stated recently at the VIII Astana Economic Forum has promptly become subject for elaborate study and analysis of local and foreign experts.
The subject is about all colossal infrastructural projects in Kazakhstan which support the idea of Chinese leader on creation of the Silk Road Economic Belt.
“Due to the further extension of economical connections, development of transport infrastructure, growth of investment flows on the Eurasian continent, there is a high potential for development of oil and gas infrastructure in the Asian region,” Sagers, the managing director of investigating company IHS Energy, said at the regular meeting of the Strategic Experts Club of KazEnergy Association on the subject of “New Silk Road and its effect on Kazakhstan’s energy sector”.
According to him, development of the energy infrastructure in Eurasia meets China’s interests on diversification of routes of energy supplies. “Creation of a high-speed transportation and energy corridor through the territory of Kazakhstan will allow China reduce dependence on oil delivery by sea through the Strait of Malacca,” Sagers said.
He reminded that currently 80% oil imported by China from the Middle East and Africa is delivered through the Strait of Malacca. China has become the largest oil importer in the world firstly outrunning the US on this indicator, in April this year. Thus, an average volume of purchased oil by China has reached 7.4 million barrels per day. At that, more than 58% of oil demand in the country is covered by import.
By 2020, according to the expert, requirements for oil in China will continue to grow at 3.4% annually.
Representatives of KazEnergy Association, Wood Mackenzie, KazMunaiGaz, BG Kazakhstan, PSA and others also commented within the framework of the meeting.
Everybody agreed that creation of the New Silk Road reflects alterations at the global energy market: the developing countries in Asia become the main centers of world economic growth and, correspondingly, will ensure the bulk in the world consumption and import of traditional energy.
“ASEAN, Africa and Russia will be the most attractive countries and regions for Chinese investments the next 10 years in new conditions,” KAzEnergy Association Executive Director Rustem Kabzhanov noted.
In 10 years the volumes of export of Kazakh oil to China will be 10-20 million tonnes per year and by 2020 Kazakhstan will export its own gas to China (exclusive of small deliveries from the East Kazakhstan region), experts told the forum.
Along with that, opinions of the participants of the meeting divided on estimation of perspectives of development of the Chinese economy and possible negative consequences for Kazakhstan’s economy.
Thus, some experts expressed anxiety on the low rate of China’s economic advance on a mid-term horizon, changes of the structure of the Chinese economy related to re-orientation onto the home consumption, as well as the strict budget policy of Chinese national companies, including those working in Kazakhstan.
Other participants noted that the slowdown in economic growth in China is a natural process coming from China’s stepping into the level of developed countries of the world. According to the stated forecasts, fall of rates of GDP growth in China will continue up to 2% by 2030-2040, similar to the US, which will result in changes of the structure of the whole world economy.
http://www.neurope.eu/article/new-silk-road-to-boost-asian-oil-and-gas-development/