A new study shows that nearly every European nation could suffer from significant energy supply loses within six months if Russia were to impose an energy embargo on Europe.
Dr. Felix Hoffler, director and full professor in energy economics at the University of Cologne, presented a simulation of the effects of a potential gas embargo enacted upon Europe by Russia at the EU-Norway Energy Conference today. The study analyzed the effects on the gas supply of different nations across Europe, including nations not in the EU, and looked at the relative decreases in continental supply over a period of nine months. The study operated under the assumption that European gas supplies are nearly 100 percent full, which is an unusually high figure, and that the embargo began in November and continued through the cold winter months.
After three months, the study found that Europe could withstand a gas embargo from Russia while only feeling nominal effects. Hoffler said most countries would still have access to full supply, with the only exceptions being Finland and Bulgaria because of the two nations proximity and dependence on Russian oil.
However, Hoffler said that after six months, most nations would begin to feel significant depletions of gas storage and specifically cited nations in southeastern Europe as being most susceptible to a Russian gas embargo of this length. In an accompanying visual aid, Hoffler pointed out that nearly every European nation east of Germany would see at least some shortfall in gas supply.
Hoffler also ran a simulation in which he forecasted the energy supplies of nations in the event that Europe experienced a particularly cold winter. In the event of a cold winter and a six month Russian gas embargo, Hoffler found that nearly a dozen European nations would see their gas supplies fall to below 50 percent, including Belgium, Poland, Ireland, the Czech Republic, Finland, Estonia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Greece.
Hoffler concluded his findings by saying that while a three month embargo would have only a limited effect on European gas supplies, a six month embargo could potentially have sever effects on gas supplies in nations across Europe, including western European nations.
Hoffler also noted that the effects on Russia of such a large decrease in gas export revenues would require an entirely separate study. As of 2011, Russia accounts for 34 percent of the EU’s net gas imports.
http://www.neurope.eu/article/new-study-shows-potential-effects-russian-gas-embargo