Sunday’s
German elections saw the worst result for the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the
Social Democrats (SPD) since 1949.
The status
quo no longer has the political authority to reform the status quo. Germany has
shown it is less exceptional than anyone thought. The political pendulum
between the center-right is in crisis in Berlin as it is elsewhere. And that
has implications for the Franco-German axis, as the CDU can no longer be
regarded as the motor of European integration.
The
question now is whether Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Emmanuel Macron
can push through with their plan for the Eurozone’s political integration. The
recent rejuvenation of the Franco-German axis has been founded on an agreement
between the two leaders for “more Europe.”
“More
Europe” for Macron means an independent budget and a finance minister for the
Eurozone, public investment, a banking union, and new crisis management
instruments. The primary tool envisaged is the conversion of the European
Stability Mechanism into a monetary fund modeled after the IMF.
However,
Angela Merkel emerges weaker from Sunday’s elections. If she is forced into a
Jamaica coalition with the so-called “liberal” Free Democrats (FDP) and the
Green party, she may not be able to implement her agreement with Macron.
Last week,
FDP’s leader Christian Lindner said he would not join a cabinet in which he did
not control the ministry of finance. Moreover, drew a red line in-between the
Franco-German axis, telling Welt am Sonntag that FDP will not allow any form of
social transfer or debt mutualization on a European level, be it in the form of
a Eurozone budget or a banking union.
Given
Macron’s own falling popularity, the ability of the French President to push
Chancellor Merkel to jeopardize the unity of her party and the stability of her
emerging coalition is questionable. The political integration of the Eurozone
is less likely on Monday than it was on Sunday.
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eurozones-political-integration-now-less-likely/